EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Deforestation Control and Agricultural Supply in Brazil

Joaquim de Souza Ferreira Filho (), Luis Ribera and Mark Horridge ()

American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2015, vol. 97, issue 2, 589-601

Abstract: Brazil has dramatically increased its agricultural area under cultivation, in the process becoming a major food exporter at the cost of natural forests. A new challenge is to meet the food demands of an expanding world population in the face of pessimistic climate change scenarios and the increasing scarcity of land. Can Brazil help meet rising world food demand while conserving its tropical rainforests? To address this question we simulate outcomes using a large dynamic multiregional computable general equilibrium model of Brazil to model land use over 20 years in 90 zones and 14 agricultural sectors. The model features a land-use change module based on a transition matrix obtained from satellite imagery. We analyze two scenarios of deforestation reduction, both linked to actual policy proposals. Model results indicate several mechanisms that allow food output to increase without expanding land supply. In particular, we stress the role of Brazil's vast, low-yield pasture area as a source of future cropland. Thus, we find that controlling deforestation leads to rather small decreases in food output-which could be neutralized by tiny exogenous productivity improvements. We conclude that the decrease in deforestation will not significantly compromise Brazilian agricultural supply capacity in the foreseeable future.

Date: 2015
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations View citations in EconPapers (4) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ajae/aav004 (application/pdf)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:97:y:2015:i:2:p:589-601.

Access Statistics for this article

American Journal of Agricultural Economics is currently edited by Madhu Khanna, Brian E. Roe, James Vercammen and JunJie Wu

More articles in American Journal of Agricultural Economics from Agricultural and Applied Economics Association Contact information at EDIRC.
Series data maintained by Oxford University Press ().

 
Page updated 2018-02-09
Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:97:y:2015:i:2:p:589-601.