Elicitation complexity of statistical properties

A characterization of scoring rules for linear properties

Rafael M Frongillo and Ian A Kash

Biometrika, 2021, vol. 108, issue 4, 857-879

Abstract: SummaryA property, or statistical functional, is said to be elicitable if it minimizes the expected loss for some loss function. The study of which properties are elicitable sheds light on the capabilities and limitations of point estimation and empirical risk minimization. While recent work has sought to identify which properties are elicitable, here we investigate a more nuanced question: how many dimensions are required to indirectly elicit a given property? This number is called the elicitation complexity of the property. We lay the foundation for a general theory of elicitation complexity, which includes several basic results on how elicitation complexity behaves and the complexity of standard properties of interest. Building on this foundation, our main result gives tight complexity bounds for the broad class of Bayes risks. We apply these results to several properties of interest, including variance, entropy, norms and several classes of financial risk measures. The article concludes with a discussion and open questions.

Keywords: Elicitability; Empirical risk minimization; Loss function; Point forecast; Risk measure; Scoring rule (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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