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Inference on population size in binomial detectability models

R. M. Fewster and P. E. Jupp

Biometrika, 2009, vol. 96, issue 4, 805-820

Abstract: Many models for biological populations, including simple mark-recapture models and distance sampling models, involve a binomially distributed number, n, of observations x 1 , …, x n on members of a population of size N. Two popular estimators of (N, θ), where θ is a vector parameter, are the maximum likelihood estimator and the conditional maximum likelihood estimator based on the conditional distribution of x 1 , …, x n given n. We derive the large-N asymptotic distributions of and , and give formulae for the biases of and . We show that the difference is, remarkably, of order 1 and we give a simple formula for the leading part of this difference. Simulations indicate that in many cases this formula is very accurate and that confidence intervals based on the asymptotic distribution have excellent coverage. An extension to product-binomial models is given. Copyright 2009, Oxford University Press.

Date: 2009
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