Persistent demi-regs and robust tendencies: critical realism and the Singer--Prebisch Thesis

Brian Pinkstone

Cambridge Journal of Economics, 2002, vol. 26, issue 5, 561-583

Abstract: Debate about whether the terms of trade for primary products relative to manufactures have a tendency to deteriorate has been ongoing for half a century. The phenomenon itself provides an example of a persistent contrastive demi-regularity. This is viewed as the result of a robust tendency, understood as an enduring and pervasive characteristic effect generated by a powerful and stable underlying causal mechanism. On this basis, the key problem for primary products lies in the biological limits on consumption, to which may be added capitalism-specific tendencies affecting processes of production and distribution. The paper concludes by arguing that the relevant holistic generic tendency under capitalism involves a long-term contraction in the primary product share of world trade. Copyright 2002, Oxford University Press.

Date: 2002
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