Can globalisation stop the decline in commodities' terms of trade?

Andre Mollick (), Joao Faria, Pedro Albuquerque and Miguel Leon-Ledesma

Cambridge Journal of Economics, 2008, vol. 32, issue 5, 683-701

Abstract: In this paper we address the following question: would a fully integrated world economy eliminate the widely reported decline in the terms of trade of primary commodities? We address the question by looking at the terms of trade within the US (a highly integrated economy). Our findings show two results. First, US internal real commodities' terms of trade over the 1947--1998 period experienced slowly declining but significant trends. Second, once we control for the effect of US prices on international terms of trade, we find a long-run relationship between the US and international relative prices. These findings support the view that the decline of commodities' terms of trade bears no relationship with the process of globalisation. This seems to indicate that, if world terms of trade behaved as the US terms of trade, neither increased integration nor protectionist measures would eliminate this trend. Copyright The Author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Cambridge Political Economy Society. All rights reserved., Oxford University Press.

Date: 2008
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/cje/bem054 (application/pdf)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
Working Paper: Can Globalisation Stop the Decline in Commodities' Terms of Trade? (2008)
Working Paper: Can Globalisation Stop the Decline in Commodities' Terms of Trade? The Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis Revisited" (2005)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oup:cambje:v:32:y:2008:i:5:p:683-701

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://academic.oup.com/journals

Access Statistics for this article

Cambridge Journal of Economics is currently edited by Jacqui Lagrue

More articles in Cambridge Journal of Economics from Cambridge Political Economy Society Oxford University Press, Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP, UK.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Oxford University Press ().