Forward-looking contrast explanation, illustrated using the Great Moderation

Jamie Morgan

Cambridge Journal of Economics, 2013, vol. 37, issue 4, 737-758

Abstract: In Reorienting Economics, Lawson introduces the concept of contrast explanation, initially defined using the question form 'why x, rather than y?' where it is a surprising or unexpected outcome that motivates the search for an explanation of the contrast. In the following paper I elaborate upon the initial question form, asking: 'why the perpetuation of y rather than an alternative possible x?' This question focuses on relative stability, but can be a sceptical or contrarian form. From a realist perspective, any stability expressed in events as regularity is highly conditional. As such, underlying the question form is an invitation to explore the instability or vulnerability of order with a view to the ways that order might break down. This motivates a forward-looking focus of investigation that is particularly appropriate for looking at systemic issues in economics. I use the global financial crisis to illustrate the potential here. Copyright , Oxford University Press.

Date: 2013
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