Structural change and economic development: is Brazil catching up or falling behind?

André Nassif, Carmem Feijo and Eliane Araujo

Cambridge Journal of Economics, 2015, vol. 39, issue 5, 1307-1332

Abstract: We present a Kaldor–Thirlwall theoretical and empirical framework on the basic driving forces of the behaviour of productivity and economic development in the long run. By calculating the so-called Thirlwall equation, the main contribution of our research is to examine whether Brazil has been catching up or falling behind. We show some empirical evidence based on both descriptive statistics and econometric regressions for Brazil between 1970 and 2010. Some important indicators of descriptive statistics reveal that Brazil has entered into a process of early deindustrialisation. In addition, since our econometric estimates also show that there was a dramatic increase in the income elasticity of demand for imports between 1980–98 and 1999–2010 (from 1.97 to 3.36) and a small decrease in the income elasticity for exports during the same periods (from 1.36 to 1.33), we conclude that Brazil not only has already embarked on a trajectory of falling behind relative to the world economy and the international economic frontier, but also that it might show, in the absence of appropriate policies, lower growth rates in the long run. However, if the opposite occurs, it would face major long-term external constraints to growth.

Date: 2015
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/cje/beu052 (application/pdf)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
Working Paper: STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND ECONOMICDEVELOPMENT: IS BRAZIL CATCHING UP OR FALLING BEHIND? (2014)
Working Paper: STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: IS BRAZIL CATCHING UP OR FALLING BEHIND? (2013)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oup:cambje:v:39:y:2015:i:5:p:1307-1332.

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://academic.oup.com/journals

Access Statistics for this article

Cambridge Journal of Economics is currently edited by Jacqui Lagrue

More articles in Cambridge Journal of Economics from Cambridge Political Economy Society Oxford University Press, Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP, UK.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Oxford University Press ().