Forecasting errors by the Troika in the economic adjustment programme for Portugal

João Ferreira do Amaral and João Carlos Lopes

Cambridge Journal of Economics, 2017, vol. 41, issue 4, 1021-1041

Abstract: This article presents an evaluation of the economic adjustment programme negotiated between the Portuguese government and the Troika (European Commission, ECB and IMF) in May 2011, using an assessment that is different from the usual studies. Instead of a comparison between the actual results and the proposed targets, an evaluation of the quality of the programme forecast is made, showing that errors could have been avoided if the productive (input–output) structure of the economy and also the unemployment rate/external deficit trade-off had been taken into account. The main conclusion of this assessment is that a large underestimation of the unemployment rate was made, amounting to about four percentage points, which illustrates the technical flaw of this adjustment programme and the huge economic and social costs it unnecessarily caused. The methodology used can easily be replicated for assessing other similar programmes, such those applied in Greece, Ireland and Cyprus.

Keywords: Unemployment; External deficit; Economic adjustment programme; Troika; Portugal (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C67 D57 E61 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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