Do Prices Lead Money? A Reexamination of the Neutrality Hypothesis

Mark Thoma

Economic Inquiry, 1989, vol. 27, issue 2, 197-217

Abstract: In one class of theoretical models, real effects occur only if changes in money growth are expected in some future period. If expected in the current period, they are neutral. Some empirical models examine the neutrality of expected current money growth, but do not address the neutrality of expected future growth. This paper develops an empirical model that explicitly incorporates expected future changes in money growth. A reexamination of the rationality, neutrality, and macrorational expectations hypotheses over a sample of four countries suggests that the use of expected future money growth results in strong rejections of the neutrality hypothesis. Copyright 1989 by Oxford University Press.

Date: 1989
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