A Long-Run View of German Dominance and the Degree of Policy Convergence in the EMS

Rik Hafer () and Ali Kutan

Economic Inquiry, 1994, vol. 32, issue 4, 684-95

Abstract: A preliminary for European monetary union is convergence of the European Monetary System's members' policies. Using a cointegration framework with short-term interest rates and monetary bases as monetary policy measures, the authors find policy convergence has not occurred. Nor, contrary to popular beliefs, does the Bundesbank dominate other members' policies. Although the Bundesbank is influential, substantial policy interaction occurs among almost all the European Monetary System countries examined. Finally, the credibility argument, that pegged exchange rate systems constrain and discipline monetary policymakers behavior, is undermined by the authors' findings. Copyright 1994 by Oxford University Press.

Date: 1994
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