Can Government Enforcement Permanently Alter Fertility? The Case of China

Carol Scotese () and Ping Wang

Economic Inquiry, 1995, vol. 33, issue 4, 552-70

Abstract: The authors quantitatively assess the main sources of fertility fluctuations in China and find that only preference shifts, involving education, health care, and the employment and social status of women, can generate a statistically significant long-run decline in fertility growth. However, the government's enforcement power can explain some short-run movements in fertility. To examine the effect of key variables, the authors modify a growth model with endogenous fertility to represent the average rural household's fertility decisions under government imposed constraints. The model provides the structure necessary to econometrically identify shocks to government enforcement ability, agricultural output, and preferences toward fertility. Copyright 1995 by Oxford University Press.

Date: 1995
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