Inflation and Elections: Theory and Evidence for Six OECD Economies

Fredrik Carlsen

Economic Inquiry, 1999, vol. 37, issue 1, 120-35

Abstract: This paper examines the relation between postelection inflation and the incumbent's reelection chances using data for fifty elections in six OECD economies. The author finds that postelection inflation is above average if the election race is close but not if the incumbent's election prospects are very good or very poor. The theoretical part of the paper shows that this result is consistent with rational political business cycle models. Copyright 1999 by Oxford University Press.

Date: 1999
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