Flattening of the Phillips Curve with State-Dependent Prices and Wages

James Costain, Anton Nakov and Borja Petit

The Economic Journal, 2022, vol. 132, issue 642, 546-581

Abstract: We study monetary transmission in a model of state-dependent prices and wages based on ‘control costs’. Stickiness arises because precise choice is costly: decision makers tolerate errors both in the timing of adjustments, and in the new level at which the price or wage is set. The model is calibrated to microdata on the size and frequency of price and wage changes. In our simulations, money shocks have less persistent real effects than in the Calvo framework; nonetheless, the model exhibits a substantial degree of non-neutrality, driven mainly by wage rigidity. State-dependent nominal stickiness implies a flatter Phillips curve as trend inflation declines, because price and wage adjustments become less frequent, making short-run inflation less reactive to shocks. Our model can explain almost half of the observed decline in the slope of the Phillips curve since 2000.

Date: 2022
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