Shaking Legitimacy: The Impact of Earthquakes on Conflict in Historical China

Ying Bai

The Economic Journal, 2023, vol. 133, issue 652, 1286-1317

Abstract: This paper examines the causal effect of political legitimacy on stability, using the historical case of Imperial China. Chinese rulers ascribed their legitimacy to a heavenly mandate. Calamities like earthquakes were considered to be a sign of weakened approval, making quakes a proxy for a negative legitimacy shock. I use quake-induced minor shaking (i.e., strong enough to be felt, but too weak to cause material damage) to demonstrate that legitimacy shocks cause more conflicts. I examine whether quakes serve as a coordination device to overcome collective action problems.

Date: 2023
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