Optimal Contact Tracing and Social Distancing Policies to Suppress A New Infectious Disease

Stefan Pollinger

The Economic Journal, 2023, vol. 133, issue 654, 2483-2503

Abstract: This paper studies the suppression of an infectious disease in the canonical susceptible-infectious-recovered model. It derives three results. First, if technically feasible, the optimal response to a sufficiently small outbreak is halting transmissions instead of building up immunity through infections. Second, the crucial trade-off is not between health and economic costs, but between the intensity and duration of control measures. A simple formula of observables characterises the optimum. Third, the total cost depends critically on the efficiency of contact tracing, since it allows relaxing costly social distancing without increasing transmissions. A calibration to the COVID-19 pandemic illustrates the theoretical findings.

Date: 2023
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Working Paper: Optimal Contact Tracing and Social Distancing Policies to Suppress a New Infectious Disease (2022)
Working Paper: Optimal Contact Tracing and Social Distancing Policies to Suppress a New Infectious Disease (2022)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oup:econjl:v:133:y:2023:i:654:p:2483-2503.

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