Collateral Damage: The Legacy of the Secret War in Laos

Juan Riano and Felipe Valencia Caicedo

The Economic Journal, 2024, vol. 134, issue 661, 2101-2140

Abstract: We investigate the long-term impact of conflict on economic development, focusing on the US ‘Secret War’ in Laos (1964–73). Our study employs multiple empirical strategies and data on bombing campaigns, satellite imagery, and development indicators to demonstrate that regions heavily bombed during this period experienced lower economic development almost fifty years after the conflict officially ended. A one-standard-deviation increase in bombing intensity is associated with a 7.1% decrease in GDP per capita. We demonstrate the persistent effects of bombing campaigns on human capital accumulation, structural transformation and migration patterns, stressing the role of unexploded ordnance contamination as the primary mechanism of transmission of these effects.

Date: 2024
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Working Paper: Collateral Damage: The Legacy of the Secret War in Laos (2020)
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