Economic Shocks and Populism

Fausto Panunzi, Nicola Pavoni and Guido Tabellini

The Economic Journal, 2024, vol. 134, issue 663, 3047-3061

Abstract: We study how voters’ preferences between a safe incumbent and a risky opponent change in the aftermath of a negative aggregate shock. With reference-dependent preferences, economically disappointed voters become risk lovers, and are hence attracted by the more risky candidate. Survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel are consistent with our assumptions and theoretical predictions on voters’ behaviour.

Date: 2024
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