Fertility Beliefs and Outcomes: the Role of Relationship Status and Attractiveness

Yifan Gong, Tyler Skura, Ralph Stinebrickner and Todd Stinebrickner

The Economic Journal, 2025, vol. 135, issue 668, 1410-1431

Abstract: Unique data from the Berea Panel Study provide new evidence about fertility outcomes before age thirty and beliefs about these outcomes elicited soon after college graduation. Comparing outcomes and beliefs yields a measure of belief accuracy. Individuals who are unmarried and not in relationships at age twenty-four are extremely optimistic about the probability of having children, while married individuals have very accurate beliefs. Novel attractiveness measures are central for understanding fertility beliefs and outcomes for females, but not for males. Marriage is a mechanism that is relevant for understanding differences in beliefs, outcomes and misperceptions across relationship and attractiveness groups.

Date: 2025
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