Firm Responses to Tax Audits: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from a Threshold-Based Audit Program

Haonan Li and Xuan Wang

The Economic Journal, 2026, vol. 136, issue 674, 560-601

Abstract: This paper investigates the causal impact of audits on tax compliance by exploiting a threshold-based VAT desk audit program in China. All firms below the VAT-to-sales ratio threshold are contacted by the tax authority and must justify their tax returns through self-audits. We estimate the audit effect using the National Tax Survey Database and a regression discontinuity design. We find that desk audits recovered a significant amount of tax revenues, and audited firms reported more output taxes and input tax credits in the subsequent two years despite no changes in real production. A portion of the increased input tax credit is attributed to the acquisition of fake invoices. Interestingly, larger taxpayers remit less VAT after the audit. The audit triggers more aggressive tax planning by large firms. They use more intrafirm transactions to avoid VAT, with a more significant impact among those with an expansive subsidiary network.

Date: 2026
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