The spread of COVID-19 and the BCG vaccine: A natural experiment in reunified Germany

Richard Bluhm and Maxim Pinkovskiy

The Econometrics Journal, 2021, vol. 24, issue 3, 353-376

Abstract: SummaryThe ‘BCG hypothesis' suggests that the Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine against tuberculosis limits the severity of COVID-19. We exploit the differential vaccination practices of East Germany and West Germany prior to reunification to test this hypothesis. Using a difference in regression discontinuities (RD-DD) design centred on the end of universal vaccination in the West, we find that differences in COVID-19 severity across cohorts in the East and West are insignificant or have the wrong sign. We document a sharp cross-sectional discontinuity in the severity of the disease, which we attribute to limited mobility across the long-gone border and which disappears when we control for social connectedness. Case and death data after the end of the first lockdown on 26 April does not display a discontinuity at the former border, suggesting that mobility (as opposed to BCG vaccination) played a major role during the initial outbreak.

Keywords: COVID-19; BCG vaccine; Germany; mobility; SIR model with commuting flows (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ectj/utab006 (application/pdf)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
Working Paper: The Spread of COVID-19 and the BCG Vaccine: A Natural Experiment in Reunified Germany (2020)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oup:emjrnl:v:24:y:2021:i:3:p:353-376.

Access Statistics for this article

The Econometrics Journal is currently edited by Jaap Abbring

More articles in The Econometrics Journal from Royal Economic Society Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Oxford University Press ().