A Short-run Econometric Analysis of the International Coffee Market

Franz Palm and E Vogelvang

European Review of Agricultural Economics, 1986, vol. 13, issue 4, 451-76

Abstract: The authors develop a short-run econometric model for the world coffee market and give empirical evidence on the behavioral equations of the model for the major coffee importing and exporting countries. The behavioral relationships for producers, inventory holders, speculators, and consumers are derived from optimizing considerations in an uncertain environment. Spot and futures prices adjust to clear the spot and futures markets at each period. International trade flows of coffee are determined by the optimizing behavior of the agents (countries) in the model. The empirical evidence confirms the authors' hypothesis of a highly structured model which is consistent with profit maximizing behavior under uncertainty. Copyright 1986 by Oxford University Press.

Date: 1986
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European Review of Agricultural Economics is currently edited by Timothy Richards, Salvatore Di Falco, Céline Nauges and Vincenzina Caputo

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