Land Allocation under Consideration of Weather-Induced Crop Yield Variations: Decision Support by a Crop Yield Simulation and Risk Analysis Model (ERM)

Renan Goetz

European Review of Agricultural Economics, 1993, vol. 20, issue 2, 199-221

Abstract: This paper presents a PC-based crop yield simulation and risk analysis model for a single farm, with the weather as the stochastic component. The ERM allows the calculation of the distribution of the farm net returns for a specific crop-rotation plan. Compared to other risk analysis models, the ERM does not ask the user to supply recorded farm data related to the past nor does it employ a specific utility function. In the ERM, the farm-specific context is included in having the farmer specify the minimum, maximum, and average crop yield for four out of seventeen analyzed crops. The application of the ERM to an arable farm is demonstrated. Copyright 1993 by Oxford University Press.

Date: 1993
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