Bayesian Updating in Hierarchic Markov Processes Applied to the Animal Replacement Problem

Anders Ringgaard Kristensen

European Review of Agricultural Economics, 1993, vol. 20, issue 2, 223-39

Abstract: The observed level of milk yield of a dairy cow or the litter size of a sow is only partially the result of a permanent characteristic of the animal; temporary effects are also involved. Thus, we face a problem concerning the proper definition and measurement of the traits in order to give the best possible prediction of the future revenues from an animal considered for replacement. A trait model describing the underlying effects is built into a model combining a Bayesian approach with hierarchic Markov process in order to be able to calculate optimal replacement policies under various conditions. Copyright 1993 by Oxford University Press.

Date: 1993
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European Review of Agricultural Economics is currently edited by Timothy Richards, Salvatore Di Falco, Céline Nauges and Vincenzina Caputo

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