 Convenience Yield and the Option to Liquidate for Commodities with a Crop CycleNikolaos Milonas and Stavros B Thomadakis European Review of Agricultural Economics, 1997, vol. 24, issue 2, 267-83 Abstract: In this paper we present a simple model which explains convenience yields in line with Keynes' 'liquid stocks' theory. When the flows of demand and production of a commodity are not synchronised, stored inventories are the source of supply which absorbs demand fluctuations in periods between production times. Since negative storage is not possible, the likelihood of a stockout implies that spot price may rise above futures price between production times. We show that the yield on stored commodities has the payoff structure of a call option. Furthermore, the existence of this call option acts to counter the appearance of normal backwardation in futures prices. Empirical tests on four commodities offer supportive evidence of our theory. Copyright 1997 by Oxford University Press. Date: 1997 There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it. Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oup:erevae:v:24:y:1997:i:2:p:267-83 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article European Review of Agricultural Economics is currently edited by Timothy Richards, Salvatore Di Falco, Céline Nauges and Vincenzina Caputo More articles in European Review of Agricultural Economics from Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation Oxford University Press, Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP, UK. Contact information at EDIRC. |
Is your work missing from RePEc? Here is how to contribute.
Questions or problems? Check the EconPapers FAQ or send mail to .
EconPapers is hosted by the
School of Business at Örebro University.