Modelling pig sector dynamic adjustment to livestock epidemics with stochastic-duration trade disruptions

Jarkko K. Niemi and Heikki Lehtonen

European Review of Agricultural Economics, 2011, vol. 38, issue 4, 529-551

Abstract: We use a stochastic dynamic programming model to simulate the market implications of alternative foot and mouth disease scenarios in the Finnish pig sector. The model considers the dynamics of animal stock adjustment and price movements when the duration of export disruptions is unknown. Explicit treatment of these issues is crucial in the economic analysis of livestock epidemics, especially if there is a risk of a prolonged export ban. Results suggest that the risk of a prolonged ban increases disease losses considerably. It also increases economic benefits from production adjustments. Oxford University Press and Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics 2010; all rights reserved. For permissions, please email journals.permissions@oup.com, Oxford University Press.

Date: 2011
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