How will Brexit affect the patterns of European agricultural and food exports?

Estimating general equilibrium trade policy effects: GE PPML

Angela Cheptea, Marilyne Huchet and Lucile Henry

European Review of Agricultural Economics, 2021, vol. 48, issue 5, 1031-1073

Abstract: We analyse how Brexit will affect European agrifood trade using a structural gravity model and by comparing the present deal to four alternative scenarios on the UK’s trade policy. European Union (EU) countries will suffer marginal drops in imports, exports and real income, with stronger effects for Ireland. EU exports to the UK will drop by 10 per cent. European products will be redirected to both intra-EU and extra-EU markets and sold at slightly lower prices. Meat products will suffer the largest losses, Ireland being particularly vulnerable due to strong interconnections with British production chains and increased costs for accessing EU and extra-EU markets.

Keywords: international trade; agricultural and trade policies; structural gravity; Brexit (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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