The impact of the Crimea annexation on agricultural trade: A structural gravity approach

Dimitrios Dadakas, Renáta Pitoňáková and Evangelos Ioannidis

European Review of Agricultural Economics, 2025, vol. 52, issue 3, 531-566

Abstract: We examine the impact of the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea on global agricultural trade flows. Using a structural gravity model with a Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator and intra-country sales, we differentiate the effects of the war from those of the sanctions on trade. We estimate conditional General Equilibrium PPML counterfactual scenarios and apply a “conventional two-step approach” to assess trade potential for Russia, Ukraine and European Union members. Our results suggest that while both Russia’s and Ukraine’s trade flows benefited during the post-annexation period, sanctions had a negative impact, with Russia experiencing more severe effects.

Keywords: structural gravity; GEPPML; trade potential; agricultural trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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