Heterogeneous effects of export-market preferences on deforestation in Brazil

Gustavo Magalhães de Oliveira, Yaghoob Jafari and Jan Börner

European Review of Agricultural Economics, 2025, vol. 52, issue 5, 1041-1088

Abstract: We investigate how preferences in the European Union (EU) and China as export destinations affect deforestation dynamics in Brazil at the municipal scale, using a shift–share measure to capture local exposure to foreign demand for soy as an instrument for soy exports. Our findings indicate that municipalities more exposed to increased EU export demand experienced a decline in deforestation compared with less exposed areas, and municipalities with greater exposure to export demand from China experienced increased deforestation compared with less exposed areas. We also examine implications for due diligence policies such as the EU Regulation on deforestation-free products.

Keywords: international soy trade; deforestation; heterogeneous export-market preferences (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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