Round effects in economic experiments—A novel probabilistic programming approach to round-dependent response behaviour

Alexa Leyens, Philipp Feisthauer, Jan Börner, Monika Hartmann and Hugo Storm

European Review of Agricultural Economics, 2026, vol. 53, issue 1, 1-29

Abstract: Respondents in multi-round experimental studies can show round-dependent response behaviour, subsumed as round effects, which can distort the analysis of study results. In this paper, we develop a novel probabilistic programming approach to capturing round effects. We apply our model to experiment data, investigating the relevance of three theoretically defined types of round effects: preference learning, institutional learning and fatigue effects. By using a Bayesian modelling workflow featuring the specification of a data generating process and extensive model inspection prior to data analysis, we demonstrate the high adaptability and transparency of our approach, as well as its value for future experimental research.

Keywords: economic experiment; business simulation game; round effects; Bayesian probabilistic programming; smart farming technologies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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