Cohort Trends in Working Life Expectancies at Age 50 in the United States: A Register-Based Study Using Social Security Administration Data

Christian DudelPhD, Mikko MyrskyläPhD and James RaymoPhD

The Journals of Gerontology: Series B, 2020, vol. 75, issue 7, 1504-1514

Abstract: ObjectivesLittle is known about the length of working life, even though it is a key indicator for policy-makers. In this paper, we study how the length of working life at age 50 has developed in the United States from a cohort perspective.MethodsWe use a large longitudinal sample of U.S. Social Security register data that covers close to 1.7 million individuals of the cohorts born from 1920 to 1965. For all of these cohorts, we study the employment trajectories and working life expectancy (WLE) at age 50 by gender and nativity (native-born/foreign-born). For the cohorts with employment trajectories that are only incompletely observed, we borrow information from older cohorts to predict their WLE.ResultsThe length of working life has been increasing for the native-born males and females, and the younger cohorts worked longer than the older cohorts. However, WLE might soon peak, and then stall. The gap in WLE between the native-born and the foreign-born has increased over time, although latter group might be able to catch up in the coming years.DiscussionOur findings show that studying employment from a cohort perspective reveals crucial information about patterns of working life. The future development of the length of working life should be a major concern for policy-makers.

Keywords: Cohort study; Continuous working history sample; Foreign-born population; Working life expectancy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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The Journals of Gerontology: Series B is currently edited by Psychological Sciences - S. Duke Han, PhD and Social Sciences - Jessica A Kelley, PhD, FGSA

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