Uncovering mechanisms of historical change in midlife loneliness across the United States and Europe: a focus on physical activity, health conditions, and wealth

Frank J Infurna, Yesenia Cruz-Carrillo, Nutifafa E Y Dey, Markus Wettstein, Kevin J Grimm, Margie E Lachman and Denis Gerstorf

The Journals of Gerontology: Series B, 2026, vol. 81, issue 1, gbaf207.

Abstract: ObjectivesPrevious research has observed that U.S. middle-aged adults report higher levels of loneliness than same-aged, earlier-born individuals and exhibit higher overall levels of loneliness relative to their peers in Europe. However, little is known regarding the factors that are driving historical trends in loneliness among middle-aged adults. We investigated the reasons behind these troubling historical trends, with an emphasis on evaluating the mediating role of physical activity, health conditions, and wealth in the United States and Europe.MethodsWe used harmonized data from nationally representative longitudinal panel surveys from the United States and 13 European nations (England and Continental, Mediterranean, and Nordic Europe) to examine whether physical activity, health conditions, and wealth are potential mechanisms that contribute to historical changes in midlife loneliness.ResultsMultilevel mediation models revealed that health conditions consistently mediated links between birth year and loneliness across the nations/regions. Those who showed increases in the number of health conditions were at greater risk for increases in loneliness. Wealth and physical activity mediated historical increases in loneliness in more nation-specific ways. For example, historical declines in wealth accumulation shaped increases in loneliness in the United States, whereas historical improvements in physical activity patterns led to lower levels of loneliness in Nordic Europe.DiscussionOur findings provide initial insights into the potential reasons behind historical trends of loneliness in the United States and European middle-aged adults. Our discussion elaborates on the reasons why physical activity, health conditions, and wealth contribute to historical changes in midlife loneliness.

Keywords: Midlife; Cross-national approach; Multilevel mediation; Mechanisms; Cohort differences (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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