Cyclical industrial dynamics in the global IT sector: origins and sequencing

Hao Tan

Industrial and Corporate Change, 2011, vol. 20, issue 1, 175-200

Abstract: In this article, we investigate the origins and dynamics of cyclical behaviour in the IT sector. Our lead--lag analysis shows the historical cyclical patterns involved in the global semiconductor industry, the computer industry, and the flat panel display industry. Based on the Granger causality tests derived from a vector autoregressive (VAR) model, we find that in the global semiconductor industry, changes in capacity utilization precede changes in sales, which in turn leads to changes in semiconductor price. Copyright 2011 The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Associazione ICC. All rights reserved., Oxford University Press.

Date: 2011
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