Assessing the Economic Impact of Lockdowns in Italy: A Computational Input–Output Approach

Nonlinear Production Networks with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis

Severin Reissl, Alessandro Caiani, Francesco Lamperti, Mattia Guerini, Fabio Vanni, Giorgio Fagiolo (), Tommaso Ferraresi, Leonardo Ghezzi, Mauro Napoletano and Andrea Roventini

Industrial and Corporate Change, 2022, vol. 31, issue 2, 358-409

Abstract: We build a novel interregional computational input–output model to assess the economic impact of lockdowns in Italy. Lockdowns are modeled as shocks to labor supply, calibrated on regional and sectoral employment data coupled with the prescriptions of government decrees. When estimated on data from the first lockdown, our model closely reproduces the observed economic dynamics during spring 2020. We also show that the model delivers a good out-of-sample performance during fall and winter 2020 and demonstrate that it can be used to analyze counterfactual scenarios.

Date: 2022
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Working Paper: Assessing the Economic Impact of Lockdowns in Italy: A Computational Input-Output Approach (2021)
Working Paper: Assessing the economic impact of lockdowns in Italy: a computational input-output approach (2021)
Working Paper: Assessing the Economic Impact of Lockdowns in Italy: A Computational Input-Output Approach (2021)
Working Paper: Assessing the economic impact of lockdowns in Italy: a computational input-output approach (2021)
Working Paper: Assessing the Economic Impact of Lockdowns in Italy: A Computational Input-Output Approach (2021)
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