 Debt-GDP cycles in historical perspective: the case of the USA (1889–2014)Engelbert Stockhammer and Giorgos Gouzoulis Industrial and Corporate Change, 2023, vol. 32, issue 2, 317-335 Abstract: Since the Global Financial Crisis, interest in financial cycles has risen significantly. While much of modern macroeconomics conceives financial crises as the results of exogenous shocks, Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis posits that financial cycles are endogenous to the economic system. The main contribution of this paper is to use historical macroeconomic data for the United States (1889–2014) to econometrically test for endogenous Minsky cycles: the interaction of procyclical private debt-to-income ratios and a dampening effect of private debt on economic activity. We analyze corporate debt-gross domestic product (GDP) growth cycles, which feature in Minsky’s original writings, and mortgage debt-GDP growth cycles as in some recent Minsky-inspired models. We find robust evidence of endogenous corporate debt-GDP cycles over the last 125 years. These results are driven by the pre-World War II (WWII), and post-1973 periods, which had a more liberal economic policy orientation. We find no evidence of mortgage debt-GDP cycles. Date: 2023 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oup:indcch:v:32:y:2023:i:2:p:317-335. Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article Industrial and Corporate Change is currently edited by Josef Chytry More articles in Industrial and Corporate Change from Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC Oxford University Press, Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP, UK. |
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