Is Africa an Optimum Currency Area? A Comparison of Macroeconomic Costs and Benefits

Georgios Karras

Journal of African Economies, 2007, vol. 16, issue 2, 234-258

Abstract: This article examines the macroeconomic costs and benefits of adopting a common currency for 37 African countries. Economic theory suggests that the main benefit is enhanced price stability, whereas the main cost is higher business-cycle volatility if the member country's output is not sufficiently correlated with Africa's as a whole. Using data from 1960 to 2000, the article finds that the estimated cost and benefit measures exhibit substantial variability across the countries and are sometimes positively correlated: countries (such as Uganda, Ghana and Guinea) that have a lot to gain from a monetary union, also have a lot to lose from it; whereas other economies (such as Morocco, Cote d'Ivoire and Gabon) that have little to lose by adopting a common African currency, have also little to gain by it. The empirical results can also be used to compare net benefits for individual countries, showing, for example, that Nigeria is a more promising candidate for membership in an African monetary union than Kenya, and that Zambia is an unambiguously better candidate than either Benin or Mauritius. Copyright 2007, Oxford University Press.

Date: 2007
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