Rainfall risk, fertility and development: evidence from farm settlements during the American demographic transition

Michael Grimm

Journal of Economic Geography, 2021, vol. 21, issue 4, 593-618

Abstract: I analyze whether variation in rainfall risk played a role in the demographic transition. The hypothesis is that children constituted a buffer stock of labor that could be mobilized in response to income shocks. Identification relies on fertility differences between farm and non-farm households within counties and over time. The results suggest that in areas with a high variance in rainfall the fertility differential was significantly higher than in areas with a low variance in rainfall. This channel is robust to other relevant forces and the spatial correlation in fertility. The effect disappeared as irrigation systems and agricultural machinery emerged.

Keywords: Rainfall risk; insurance; fertility; demographic transition (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J13 N51 O12 Q12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Working Paper: Rainfall risk, fertility and development: Evidence from farm settlements during the American demographic transition (2017)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oup:jecgeo:v:21:y:2021:i:4:p:593-618.

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