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Striking evidence: the impact of railway strikes on competition from intercity bus services in Germany

Matthias Beestermöller, Levke Jessen-Thiesen and Alexander Sandkamp

Journal of Economic Geography, 2025, vol. 25, issue 6, 853-872

Abstract: This article investigates the impact of rail service interruptions on customer switching. Using booking data on intercity bus services, we exploit regional variation in rail service cancellations during a strike to show that the disruption in rail transport increases bus ticket sales. The effect persists beyond the strike, indicating that travellers do not return to their originally preferred transport mode. It is particularly pronounced on shorter routes and among leisure passengers travelling on weekends. The findings indicate that customers were previously under-experimenting. Our results imply that incentivising experimentation can foster competition, facilitate transformative change and raise welfare.

Keywords: experimentation; inter-modal substitution; learning; optimization; strike; switching costs; transport (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D83 L92 R41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Journal of Economic Geography is currently edited by Jorge De la Roca, Stephen Gibbons, Simona Iammarino, Amanda Ross and James Faulconbridge

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