Energy Transition Metals: Bottleneck for Net-Zero Emissions?

Lukas Boer, Andrea Pescatori and Martin Stuermer

Journal of the European Economic Association, 2024, vol. 22, issue 1, 200-229

Abstract: The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals, including copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium. Are these metals a bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities, and study the price impact of the transition in a structural scenario analysis. Prices of these four metals would reach previous historical peaks but for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario, potentially derailing the energy transition. Their production value would rise nearly four-fold to USD 11 trillion for the period 2021–2040. These four metals markets alone could become as important to the global economy as the oil market.

Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oup:jeurec:v:22:y:2024:i:1:p:200-229.

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