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Export-Led Decay: The Trade Channel in the Gold Standard Era

Bernardo Candia and Mathieu Pedemonte

Journal of the European Economic Association, 2025, vol. 23, issue 3, 1173-1201

Abstract: Flexible exchange rates can facilitate price adjustments that buffer macroeconomic shocks. We test this hypothesis using adjustments to the gold standard during the Great Depression. Using novel monthly data on city-level economic activity, sectoral employment, and export data, we show that American exporting cities were significantly affected by changes in bilateral exchange rates. We calibrate a general equilibrium model to obtain aggregate effects from cross-sectional estimates. We show that the trade channel deepened the Great Depression and was a key driver of the economic recovery in 1933.

Date: 2025
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Working Paper: Export-Led Decay: The Trade Channel in the Gold Standard Era (2021) Downloads
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