The Illicit Benefits of Local Party Alignment in National Elections

Divided Government versus Incumbency Externality Effect: Quasi-Experimental Evidence on Multiple Voting Decisions,”

Oana Borcan

The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, 2020, vol. 36, issue 3, 461-494

Abstract: How do central politicians in young democracies secure electoral support at grassroots level? I show that alignment with local governments is instrumental in swaying national elections through, inter alia, electoral fraud. A regression discontinuity design with Romanian local elections and a president impeachment referendum in 2012 uncovers higher referendum turnouts in localities aligned with the government coalition—the impeachment initiators. Electoral forensics tests present abnormal vote count distributions across polling stations, consistent with ballot stuffing. The alignment effect, driven by rural localities, may explain the clientelistic government transfers found in this context and documented worldwide. (JEL D72, D73, H77)

Date: 2020
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