Asymmetric crime dynamics in and out of lockdowns*

Rubén Poblete-Cazenave

The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, 2025, vol. 41, issue 2, 700-729

Abstract: This article studies the dynamic impact of a temporary policy restricting social encounters due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on criminal activity in Bihar, India. Using a regression discontinuity design in time and criminal case—level and arrest data, I document an immediate drop in crime of over 35% due to the lockdown. Analysis over a longer timespan shows asymmetric dynamics by crime type. The lockdown was more effective in preventing personal crimes such as murders but was less effective in preventing property crimes, which increased beyond pre-lockdown levels once the lockdown was lifted. The increase in property crimes seems to be driven by temporal crime displacement from “former offenders” and not by “new offenders.” These asymmetric dynamics across crime types provide new insights into criminals’ intertemporal decisions (JEL K14, K42).

Date: 2025
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