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Dynamic Persistence of Industry Trade Balances: How Pervasive Is the Product Cycle?

Joseph Gagnon and Andrew Rose ()

Oxford Economic Papers, 1995, vol. 47, issue 2, 229-48

Abstract: This paper looks for dynamic patterns in international trade flows using comprehensive multilateral data for six countries, disaggregated to the four-digit SITC level. The purpose of the paper is to compare predictions of persistent trade balances generated by theories of international trade, such as factor-proportions, with more dynamic theories such as the product cycle. Little evidence is found of dynamic trade behavior at the industry level between 1962 and 1990 for Brazil, Japan, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Rather, goods that begin the sample in surplus (deficit) almost always remain in surplus (deficit) throughout the sample. Copyright 1995 by Royal Economic Society.

Date: 1995
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