Unemployment Dynamics in the UK

Brian Henry and James Nixon

Oxford Economic Papers, 2000, vol. 52, issue 1, 224-47

Abstract: This paper examines the determinants of unemployment in terms of its statistical correlates. At one extreme unemployment has been viewed as highly trended in the post war period, with the implication that equilibrium unemployment has followed a broadly similar path. Alternatively, unemployment can be viewed as a highly persistent series that departs for long periods from a more stable equilibria. This paper reports on reduced form models of unemployment and suggests that many exogenous variables that have typically been associated with movements in equilibrium unemployment have little explanatory power. Instead, unemployment may be characterised as a near unit root process driven by a mixture of mean shifting I(0) variables. Copyright 2000 by Oxford University Press.

Date: 2000
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