 The European business cycleMichael Artis, Hans-Martin Krolzig and Juan Toro Oxford Economic Papers, 2004, vol. 56, issue 1, 1-44 Abstract: This paper deals with the existence and identification of a common European growth cycle. Univariate Markov switching autoregressions are used for individual countries in order to detect changes in the mean growth rate of industrial production. A Markov switching vector autoregression model is then used to identify a common cycle in Europe. Three important results are obtained: we find a common unobserved component governing European business cycle dynamics, suggesting the existence of a common business cycle; we propose a dating of the business cycle, both for an index of industrial protection and GDP, and both chronologies appear to be consistent; and finally we retrieve an important set of stylized facts and relate these with those reported for the US. Finally two further issues are investigated: first, the contribution of the European business cycle to the individual country cycles; and second, we undertake an impulse response analysis to investigate the response of each individual country to European expansions and recessions. Copyright 2004, Oxford University Press. Date: 2004 There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it. Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:56:y:2004:i:1:p:1-44 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article Oxford Economic Papers is currently edited by James Forder and Francis J. Teal More articles in Oxford Economic Papers from Oxford University Press Oxford University Press, Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP, UK. |
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