Democratizing for peace? The effect of democratization on civil conflicts

Uwe Sunde and Matteo Cervellati

Oxford Economic Papers, 2014, vol. 66, issue 3, 774-797

Abstract: This paper provides an empirical investigation of the effect of democratization on the risk of civil conflicts. Results for the countries democratizing during the Third Wave suggest that democratization has a negative overall effect on conflicts. Democratization does not affect conflicts for territories, but significantly reduces internal civil conflict over the control of the government. The effect sets in after democratization and appears to be persistent. The democratization scenario in terms of violence during the transition has an effect on subsequent conflict for government. Countries with a violent transition to democracy experience shorter spells of peace than countries with a peaceful transition to democracy. Similar findings emerge for the occurrence of coups.

Date: 2014
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