Terrorist group location decision: an empirical investigation

Khusrav Gaibulloev

Oxford Economic Papers, 2015, vol. 67, issue 1, 21-41

Abstract: This article explores the determinants of terrorist groups’ location choice. A conditional logit estimator is applied to data consisting of 525 terrorist groups and 113 potential base countries of operation. The analysis shows that the number of existing groups in a country increases the probability of a terrorist group choosing the country as a base of operations. More important, terrorist groups are more likely to locate in a country where existing groups share similar ideology with the entrant, particularly for left-wing terrorist groups. A country’s political instability and/or state failure raise the chances that a terrorist group will locate there. Terrorist groups are more likely to base their operations closer to the venues of their planned terrorist attacks. Terrorist groups locate their base country of operation nearer to their planned venue countries.

Date: 2015
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