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Political cycle in graduation rates

Christian Hubert Ebeke (cebeke@imf.org) and Sabine Mireille Ntsama

Oxford Economic Papers, 2016, vol. 68, issue 1, 89-107

Abstract: We show that exam success rates in Sub-Saharan Africa increase significantly in the months prior to national elections. Using a sample of more than 35 African countries, the study seeks to demonstrate that higher graduation rates prior to major national elections arise because of government manipulation. Evidence from a variety of robustness checks—controlling for observables, focussing on strictly exogenous elections, regression discontinuity estimates—confirms the central hypothesis: public officials deliberately relax graduation requirements to increase popular support for the incumbent in the months prior to national elections. We find that this result is stronger in a context of competitive elections. However, the results also show that good governance dampens the political cycle in graduation rates.

Date: 2016
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