EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

The decline in volatility in the US economy. A historical perspective

María Dolores Gadea, Ana Gómez-Loscos () and Gabriel Pérez-Quirós
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Gabriel Perez Quiros

Oxford Economic Papers, 2020, vol. 72, issue 1, 101-123

Abstract: In this paper, we analyse the volatility of US GDP growth using quarterly series starting in 1875. We find structural breaks in volatility at the end of World War II and at the beginning of the Great Moderation period. We show that the Great Moderation volatility reduction is only linked to changes in expansions, whereas that after World War II is due to changes in both expansions and recessions. We also propose several methodologies to date the US business cycle in this long period. We find that taking volatility into account improves the characterization of the business cycle.

JEL-codes: C22 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oep/gpz030 (application/pdf)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:72:y:2020:i:1:p:101-123.

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.oup.co.uk/journals

Access Statistics for this article

Oxford Economic Papers is currently edited by A. Banerjee and James Forder

More articles in Oxford Economic Papers from Oxford University Press Oxford University Press, Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP, UK.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Oxford University Press ().

 
Page updated 2021-10-15
Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:72:y:2020:i:1:p:101-123.