A cohort-based analysis of labor force participation for advanced economies

Francesco Grigoli (), Zsoka Koczan and Petia Topalova

Oxford Economic Papers, 2021, vol. 73, issue 2, 623-643

Abstract: Advanced economies are in the midst of a major demographic transition, with the number of elderly rising precipitously. Yet, advanced economies experienced different trajectories in labor force participation rates and workforce attachment of men and women. Using a cohort model for 17 advanced economies during 1985–2016, we document a significant role of common patterns of participation over the life cycle and shifts in these patterns across generations, especially for women. New cohorts of women led to upward shifts in the age participation profile. However, this process plateaued in most countries, with signs of reversal in some. We project sizable declines in participation rates over the next three decades, with aggregate participation forecast to decline by 5.5 percentage points for the median advanced economy. Illustrative simulations show that closing gender gaps, extending working lives, and implementing policies encouraging labor supply can help attenuate, but may not fully offset, demographic pressures.

JEL-codes: J01 J16 J21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Related works:
Working Paper: A Cohort-Based Analysis of Labor Force Participation for Advanced Economies (2018)
Working Paper: A Cohort-Based Analysis of Labor Force Participation for Advanced Economies (2018)
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