Pandemic shocks and macroprudential policy

George J Bratsiotis and Manuel Gloria

Oxford Economic Papers, 2025, vol. 77, issue 2, 537-563

Abstract: We introduce an extended borrower–saver DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) model, where classifications of occupations are split further into two subcategories, according to whether their occupation is directly “affected” by a pandemic shock. We find that, contrary to the standard literature, during a pandemic shock an increase in the Loan-to-Value (LTV) ratio can increase social welfare and make all four agent types (borrowers affected, borrowers non-affected, savers affected, and savers non-affected) better off. Countercyclical optimal LTV rules are shown to increase social welfare, with savers gaining at the expense of borrowers, including those mostly affected by the pandemic. An interest rate mortgage subsidy to those worst affected (“affected” mortgage borrowers), in coordination with stricter monetary and LTV policy, are shown to increase both social welfare and the welfare of borrowers and savers affected by the pandemic.

Keywords: COVID-19; pandemic shock; macroprudential policy; monetary policy; welfare; loan-to-value; financial stability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E44 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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